AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. They ended the Monday session with most contracts 1 to 2 cents in the red. Export Inspections for the week of August 9 were 1.262 MMT. That was 65.75% larger than the same week last year. The YTD exports are lagging last year by just 0.97%. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 73% of the US corn crop was in the dough stage as of Sunday, with 26% dented vs. the 13% average. Condition ratings were down 1% in the gd/ex categories to 70%, as the Brugler500 Index dropped 2 to 377. It is still above year ago. The USDA’s new crop export projection was increased 125 mbu to 2.35 bbu, with the average farm price estimate dropping 20 cents to $3.10-4.10 on Friday. FSA monthly data showed that producers enrolled 918,213 acres in prevent plant for corn as of August 1, which was slightly less than last year (~950 thousand).

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 2 to 3 cents higher after closing 6 to 7 1/2 cents higher on Monday. Nearby soy meal was up $4.30/ton, with soy oil 25 points higher. The USDA indicated that 580,824 MT of soybeans were inspected for export during the week ending 8/9. That was a 35% drop from the week prior and down 1.7% from this week last year. YTD exports are now 3.19% lower than the same time in 2017. NASS reported that 84% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday vs. the average of 72%. The crop was rated at 66% good/ex, with the Brugler500 Index dropping 1 point from last week to 369. Wednesday’s NOPA report is expected to show 161.745 mbu of soybeans were crushed during July, which would be well above last July. Friday afternoon’s FSA data showed that 271,082 acres of soybeans were enrolled in prevent plant, 38% fewer than August 2017.

Wheat

Wheat futures are 5 to 6 cents higher in the CBT and KC HRW contracts this morning, but hovering near UNCH for MPLS spring wheat. They ended Monday with most KC contracts 17 to 19 cents lower, as CBT and MPLS were down 13 to 16 cents. The weekly Export Inspections report tallied all wheat shipments in the week of August 9 at 462,854 MT. That was 41.73% larger than the previous week but down 9.54% from the same week last year. USDA hiked projected wheat exports 50 mbu on Friday, to 1.025 bbu. That increased rate of exports has yet to begin. The winter wheat crop was 96% harvested on 8/12 (96% avg), with the spring wheat crop 35% harvested vs. the normal pace of 27%. Spring wheat condition ratings were up 1% to 65% gd/ex, moving the Brugler500 Index up 1 to 382. A total of 363,208 wheat acres have been enrolled in FSA prevent plant as of August 1, 40.84% fewer than last year. Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat for late Sep/early Oct delivery, with the tender to close on Tuesday.

Cattle

Live cattle futures saw losses of 50 cents to $1.10 in most contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down 40 cents to $1.25. The CME feeder cattle index was steady with the previous day on 8/10, at $151.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.82 at $208.43, while Select boxes were $1.89 higher at $199.66. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with the previous week and 3,000 head above the same week in 2017. Most of the cash trade on Friday was around $111, down $3 from the week prior. Futures continue to anticipate weakness in the cash.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were steady to $1.10 higher in the front contracts on Monday. The last half 2019 contracts were lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.84 on August 9, to $60.04. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 6 cents from the previous day at $71.01 on Monday afternoon. The ham, butt, and belly were all lower. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.21 in the Monday PM report, with the weighted average @ $43.73. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 467,000 head on Monday. That is up 72,000 head from last week and 18,000 head above the same week last year.

Cotton

Cotton futures are 14 to 22 points higher this morning after they posted losses of 234 to 272 in most contracts on Monday. Forecasts for rains in TX and Friday’s increase in estimated US production helped to push the market lower. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that 77% of the US cotton Crop was setting bolls as of Sunday, with 13% of the crop showing those bolls opening. The good/excellent condition categories were UNCH at 40%, with the Brugler500 down 5 points to 300 on an increase in the very poor ratings. New crop exports for upland cotton are now projected by USDA at 15.5 million bales, up 500,000 bales from the July total. FSA data released on Friday afternoon shows 121,877 acres of prevent plant cotton as of August 1, which was slightly higher than last year. The Cotlook A index was up 10 points from the previous day at 97.30 cents/lb on August 10.


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